In the New House of Commons The Number of Women MPs Is Unlikely To Rise Much - But There Will be 24 More Female Tories

Over the last few days I have been burnishing my credentials as a political geek and been carrying out some research about the likely makeup of the next House of Commons. In particular the likely number of women MPs. I’ve used my Seat by Seat predictions to analyse how many female MPs there will be from each party and who they will be. I’ll come to the detail in a moment, but my research shows that the number of Conservative female MPs will rise by around a third, but the number of Labour MPs who are female will plummet, even though the percentage of women will rise. Overall, though, the total number of female MPs is unlikely to rise by more than a few.

Let’s put this into some historical context. Since 1918 there have been 456 female MPs. If I am right about the likely Tory majority and makeup of the House of Commons after June 8th we will see 35 new female MPs across all parties – 25 of them Conservatives. These include three ‘retreads’ (Mary Macleod, Esther McVey & Jo Swinson).

This is a list of all the new female MPs…

Bath Lib Wera Hobhouse

Batley and Spen Con Ann Myatt

Birmingham, Edgbaston Con Caroline Squire

Birmingham, Northfield Con Meg Powell Chandler

Brentford and Isleworth Con Mary Macleod

Bristol East Theodora Clarke

Bristol West Green Mary Scott Cato

Chelmsford Con Vicky Ford

Chorley Con Caroline Moon

Coventry North West Con Resham Kotecha

Coventry South Con Michelle Lowe

Dagenham and Rainham Con Julie Marson

Dewsbury Con Beth Prescott

Ealing Central and Acton Con Joy Morrissey

Gedling Con Carolyn Abbott

Great Grimsby Con Jo Gideon

Hampstead and Kilburn Con Claire-Louise Leyland

Harrow West Con Hannah David

Hornchurch and Upminster Con Julia Dockerill

Hove Con Kristy Adams

Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle Lab Emma Hardy

Leigh Lab Jo Platt

Lewes Lib Kelly-Marie Blundell

Lewisham West and Penge Lab Ellie Reeves

Oxford East Lab Annaliese Dodds

Saffron Walden Con Kemi Adegoke

Scunthorpe Con Holly Mumby-Scott

Tatton Con Esther McVey

Thornbury and Yate Lib Clare Young

Westminster North Con Lindsay Hall

Wolverhampton North East Con Sarah Macken

East Dunbartonshire Lib Jo Swinson

Alyn and Deeside Con Laura Knightly

Cardiff Central LibDem Eluned Parrott

Llanelli Plaid Mari Arthur

Newport West Con Angela Rhys Evans

Bridgend Con Karen Robson

After June 8th, assuming a Tory majority of around 130, there will be 195 female MPs in the House of Commons – only tfour more than there are at the moment. This is mainly because the number of female Labour MPs will reduce from 99 to 73. The number of Tory female MPs rises from 68 to 93, and the number of female LibDems from 0 to 5.

Percentage wise the Tory contingent goes up from 20.5% to 23.7%, the Labour proportion rises from 42.5% to 44.8%. The SNP drops from 20 to 17 female MPs and from 35.7% to 32%.

Here’s the list of all 195 female candidates I predict will be elected on June 8th by constituency.

Aberdeen North SNP Kirsty Blackman

Aldridge-Brownhills Con Wendy Morton

Alyn and Deeside Con Laura Knightly

Ashfield Lab Gloria de Piero

Ashton-under-Lyne Lab Angela Rayner

Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock SNP Corri Wilson

Banbury Con Victoria Prentis

Banff and Buchan SNP Eilidh Whiteford

Barking Lab Margaret Hodge

Barnsley East Lab Steph Peacock

Basingstoke Con Maria Miller

Bath Lib Wera Hobhouse

Batley and Spen Con Ann Myatt

Battersea Con Jane Ellison

Berwick-upon-Tweed Con Ann Marie Trevelyan

Bethnal Green and Bow Lab Rushanara Ali

Birmingham, Edgbaston Con Caroline Squire

Birmingham, Ladywood Lab Shabana Mahmood

Birmingham, Northfield Con Meg Powell Chandler

Birmingham, Yardley Lab Jess Phillips

Blackburn Lab Kate Hollern

Blaydon Lab Liz Twist

Bolton South East Lab Yasmin Quereshi

Bradford West Lab Naz Shah

Brent Central Lab Dawn Butler

Brentford and Isleworth Con Mary Macleod

Bridgend Con Karen Robson

Brighton, Pavilion Green Caroline Lucas

Bristol East Con Theodora Clarke

Bristol North West Con Charlotte Leslie

Bristol West Green Mary Scott Cato

Broxtowe Con Anna Soubry

Bury St Edmunds Con Jo Churchill

Camberwell and Peckham Lab Harriet Harman

Cannock Chase Con Amanda Milling

Cardiff Central LibDem Eluned Parrott

Castle Point Con Rebecca Harris

Central Ayrshire SNP Philippa Whitford

Chatham and Aylesford Con Tracey Crouch

Cheadle Con Mary Robinson

Chelmsford Con Vicky Ford

Chesham and Amersham Con Cheryl Gillan

Chippenham Con Michelle Donelan

Chipping Barnet Con Theresa Villiers

Chorley Con Caroline Moon

City of Durham Lab Roberta Blackman-Woods

Congleton Con Fiona Bruce

Copeland Con Trudi Harrison

Coventry North East Lab Colleen Fletcher

Coventry North West Con Resham Kotecha

Coventry South Con Michelle Lowe

Cynon Valley Lab Ann Clwyd

Dagenham and Rainham Con Julie Marson

Derby North Con Amanda Solloway

Derby South Lab Margaret Beckett

Devizes Con Claire Perry

Dewsbury Con Beth Prescott

Don Valley Lab Caroline Flint

Doncaster Central Lab Rosie Winterton

Dulwich and West Norwood Lab Helen Hayes

Dwyfor Meirionnydd Plaid Liz Savile-Roberts

Ealing Central and Acton Con Joy Morrissey

East Dunbartonshire Lib Jo Swinson

East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow SNP Lisa Cameron

East Renfrewshire SNP Kirsten Oswald

Eastbourne Con Caroline Ansell

Eastleigh Con Mims Davies

Eddisbury Con Antoniette Sandbach

Edinburgh North and Leith SNP Deirdre Brock

Edinburgh South West SNP Joanna Cherry

Edmonton Lab Kate Osamor

Epping Forest Con Eleanor Laing

Erewash Con Maggie Throup

Erith and Thamesmead Lab Theresa Pearce

Falkirk SNP John McNally

Fareham Con Suella Fernandes

Faversham and Mid Kent Con Helen Whateley

Feltham and Heston Lab Seema Malhotra

Fermanagh & South Tyrone SF Michelle Gildernew

Garston and Halewood Lab Maria Eagle

Gedling Con Carolyn Abbott

Glasgow Central SNP Alison Thewliss

Glasgow North East SNP Ann McLaughlin

Glasgow North West SNP Carol Monaghan

Gosport Con Caroline Dinenage

Great Grimsby Con Jo Gideon

Guildford Con Anne Milton

Hackney North and Stoke Newington Lab Diane Abott

Hackney South and Shoreditch Lab Meg Hillier

Hampstead and Kilburn Lab Claire-Louise Leyland

Harrow West Con Hannah David

Hastings and Rye Con Amber Rudd

Heywood and Middleton Lab Liz McInnes

Hornchurch and Upminster Con Julia Dockerill

Hornsey and Wood Green Lab Catherine West

Houghton and Sunderland South Lab Bridget Phillipson

Hove Con Kristy Adams

Islington South and Finsbury Lab Emily Thornberry

Kensington Con Victoria Borwick

Kingston upon Hull North Lab Diana Johnson

Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle Lab Emma Hardy

Lanark and Hamilton East SNP Angela Crawley

Leeds West Lab Rachel Reeves

Leicester South Lab Liz Kendall

Leigh Lab Jo Platt

Lewes Lib Kelly-Marie Blundell

Lewisham East Lab Heidi Alexander

Lewisham West and Penge Lab Ellie Reeves

Lewisham, Deptford Lab Vicky Foxcroft

Liverpool, Riverside Lab Louise Ellman

Liverpool, Wavertree Lab Luciana Berger

Livingston SNP Hannah Bardell

Llanelli Plaid Mari Arthur

Loughborough Con Nicky Morgan

Louth and Horncastle Con Victoria Atkins

Maidenhead Con Theresa May

Maidstone and The Weald Con Helen Grant

Makerfield Lab Yvonne Fovargue

Manchester Central Lab Lucy Powell

Meriden Con Caroline Spelman

Mid Bedfordshire Con Nadine Dorries

Mid Derbyshire Con Pauline Latham

Mitcham and Morden Lab Siobhain McDonagh

Morley and Outwood Con Andrea Jenkyns

Neath Lab Christina Rees

Newcastle upon Tyne Central Lab Chi Onwurah

Newcastle upon Tyne North Lab Catherine McKinnell

Newport East Lab Jessica Morden

Newport West Con Angela Rhys Jones

Newton Abbot Con Anne-Marie Morris

Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford Lab Yvette Cooper

North Ayrshire and Arran SNP Patricia Blackford

North Down Ind Sylvia Hermon

North Tyneside Lab Mary Glindon

North West Durham Lab Laura Pidcock

Norwich North Con Chloe Smith

Nottingham South Lab Lilian Greenwood

Ochil and South Perthshire SNP Tasmin Ahmed-Sheikh

Oldham East and Saddleworth Lab Debbie Abrahams

Oxford East Lab Annaliese Dodds

Oxford West and Abingdon Con Nicola Blackwood

Paisley and Renfrewshire South SNP Mhairi Black

Penistone and Stocksbridge Con Nicola Wilson

Portsmouth North Con Penny Mordant

Portsmouth South Con Flick Drummond

Putney Con Justine Greening

Redcar Lab Anna Turley

Redditch Con Rachel Maclean

Rochester and Strood Con Kelly Tolhurst

Romsey and Southampton North Con Caroline Nokes

Rotherham Lab Sarah Champion

Rutherglen and Hamilton West SNP Margaret Farrier

Saffron Walden Con Kemi Adegoke

Salford and Eccles Lab Rebecca Long-Bailey

Scunthorpe Con Holly Mumby-Scott

Sheffield, Brightside and Hillsborough Lab Gill Furniss

Sleaford and North Hykeham Con Caroline Johnson

South Cambridgeshire Con Heidi Allen

South Derbyshire Con Heather Wheeler

South Down SDLP Margaret Ritchie

South East Cambridgeshire Con Lucy Frazer

South East Cornwall Con Sheryll Murray

South Northamptonshire Con Andrea Leadsom

South Ribble Con Seema Kennedy

South Shields Lab Emma Lewell-Buck

South West Norfolk Con Liz Truss

St Albans Con Anne Main

St Helens South and Whiston Lab Marie Rimmer

Staffordshire Moorlands Con Karen Bradley

Stockport Lab Ann Coffey

Stourbridge Con Margaret James

Stretford and Urmston Lab Kate Green

Suffolk Coastal Con Therese Coffey

Sunderland Central Lab Julie Elliott

Swansea East Lab Carolyn Harris

Tatton Con Esther McVey

Taunton Deane Con Rebecca Pow

Telford Con Lucy Allan

Thornbury and Yate Lib Clare Young

Thurrock Con Jackie Doyle-Price

Totnes Con Sarah Wollaston

Truro and Falmouth Con Sarah Newton

Vauxhall Lab Kate Hoey

Wallasey Lab Angela Eagle

Walthamstow Lab Stella Creasy

Warrington North Lab Helen Jones

Washington and Sunderland West Lab Sharon Hodgson

Wealden Con Nusrat Ghani

West Ham Lab Lyn Brown

West Lancashire Lab Rosie Cooper

West Worcestershire Con Harriet Baldwin

Westminster North Con Lindsay Hall

Wigan Lab Lisa Nandy

Wirral South Lab Alison McGovern

Witham Con Priti Patel

Wolverhampton North East Con Sarah Macken

York Central Lab Rachel Maskell