Trees that don't bend with the wind, won't last the storm

One thing we have seen in preliminary skirmishes on social media is that a lot of energy can be wasted on futile and often unwinnable arguments. At best you can win a debate hands down to zero effect or you can argue to a stalemate where it becomes just a battle of egos competing to have the last word - by which time nobody is paying attention. That's largely how social media works.

Here we reach something of a paradox in that we have long said the details are important, but in arguing for Brexit we should not get bogged down in details. All clear? No. Not really. The point is that we need to be aware of the details so as to be able to see the traps as they are set for us and not walk right into them. Instead we have multiple fallback positions whereby we are not forced to throw our entire resources defending any single case. The only battle we need win is the reassurance that trade will continue unaffected in the event of Brexit and that single market access is assured.

There are many means at our disposal, including the Norway option (EEA/Efta), the Swiss option or the more risky WTO option. All of them have respective merits but none represent a wholly satisfactory solution.

The Yes campaign will spend some considerable effort poking holes in such options. There is nothing to be gained by expending energy arguing the toss. Anyone who wants to have the argument with you has probably made up their own minds and are not likely to be persuaded. There is no value in wasting your own time in this way. It's easier to acknowledge that each of the options does have inherent flaws. We only advocate one or other solution as an interim off the shelf solution in order to retain single market access. Again we underscore the point that Brexit is a process, not an event and there is a long road to travel before we arrive at the destination of full Independence. There are stops along the way and any one option is largely the path of least resistance.

Our own view is that the Norway Option is the mode most likely to succeed in preliminary negotiations but it is unlikely the No campaign will ever reach full agreement in this regard. But then it doesn't matter. It really doesn't matter. From such a position we can then begin to design our path to future full independence. We fully admit that EU budget contributions will not be significantly reduced, nor do we see any immediate change in immigration policy - but it does solve the immediate problem of leaving the EU. As a first step, that is significant in and of itself.

That said, as much as a energy draining debate around the respective merits of each option, it's important not to be too invested in any single option because we do not know, and won't know until the very last phase of the referendum campaign what Cameron's "renegotiation" will look like.

By reading the runes, it is more likely that a new treaty will be put forward in place of treaty revisions which will be sold as a new settlement for Britain. Effectively it will formalise the "two speed Europe". We expect that it will include some concessions to both Norway and Switzerland bringing them and us into a form of associate membership and may well abolish the EEA, rendering the Efta solution redundant. Should the No campaign be over invested in any single solution, the entire case we make folds as the rug is pulled from under us.

In this eventuality we could adopt the processes and strategies used by the Australian government in securing its trade relations with the EU. Taken from 1997, it signed a joint declaration on EU-Australian relations which was followed two years later by a Mutual Recognition Agreement (MRA). Thus, an informal, unilateral declaration was anchored by the MRA, as a formal treaty.

The scope exists for the UK to do likewise, making a commitment to match EU trade harmonisation laws by way of a unilateral declaration, based on the current EEA acquis. This would not require the approval of EU member states. The UK would then be in a very strong position then to insist in access to Single Market, invoking WTO non-discrimination rules, as it would be maintaining regulatory convergence.

Completing the process, the UK would then negotiate an MRA. To this could then be appended an agreement on tariffs plus a bilateral agreement on programme participation, and there is an almost exact equivalence with EEA Agreement. Carried out under the aegis of Article 50, the negotiations would be given a formal framework. As long as the UK did not seek access to the Market on better terms than were available to a full member, there would seem to be no serious obstacles to concluding a full agreement.

It must still be reiterated than even this in itself is not the final destination. All this means is that trade need not be affected while giving us the freedom to pursue other trade avenues. If we hold fast that any one single solution is the destination then we are pitching half measures against the full formalised EU settlement which is not an argument we can win. The emphasis must be made that from such a position we are better able to influence not only single market rules but global trade rules by way of having independent powers of veto and be more agile by taking a more modern, pragmatic approach to trade agreements.

In this respect we can formulate proposals well outside the stagnant debates surrounding the options put forward in the Brexit debate - which the Yes campaign will not be intellectually equipped to argue against. The strategy must be to bypass the arguments they are prepared for. Whichever option we choose, by admitting the flaws - and that there are further stages to Brexit, we can skirt around the pointless and boring arguments that don't get us anywhere.

The bottom line is that each option ensures continuity of trade and, irrespective of the nitty gritty, the Yes campaign cannot deny that. The pitfalls are compensated for by the increased global influence and the new markets we open up. More work needs to be done to identify what those are and how we do that, but that is our starting point, rather than learning the talking points off by heart.

If we can do this and avoid the obvious traps, the Yes campaign arguments will crumble. They have stock answers to predictable engagements - so let's not give them what they are expecting.

Brexit: The task ahead

Returning to the subject of the EU referendum, there is a certain dishonesty in the Yes campaign's efforts thus far in attempting to frame the referendum as a liberals vs Ukip battle. That's actually quite astute politics because it's a battle Ukip would lose every single time. But it need not be this way. If at any point the No campaign gets it's act together, it should be easy to demonstrate that the EU, by way of it's very broken asylum policy, is not some liberal paradise but is in fact an extension of the Ukip protectionist fortress mentality - writ large for the whole continent. But we'll have to go one further than that if we want to win. 

The Yes campaign seeks to sow confusion in terms of what Brexit actually looks like. Their aim is to present Brexit as a leap into the dark where nobody knows what will happen, thus summoning the status quo effect in the final vote. Because no mainstream sceptic organisation has yet endorsed a Brexit plan, it is easy for them to deny the existence of one. That is our Achilles heel.

Of course readers of this blog will know we have put some considerable effort into producing such a plan but have yet to cut through the noise of the self-serving egos presently jockeying for position at the head of the table. We expect this to be resolved in due course one way or another. We believe the message is getting through. There are games at play already.

First and foremost the Yes campaign intends to spread doubt and confusion about the possible alternatives. We have seen this in action already. We were in early after the general election in promoting the Norway option as one option among many - but even we acknowledged it is no silver bullet. Central to our message is that the options on offer are only the foundation of a process. 

The critical part of our message being that whichever option we suggest, be it Norway, Switzerland or the WTO option, is far from ideal - but none are proposed as the final destination. We insist that Brexit is a process, of which leaving the EU, the political entity, is only really the start. 

We face something of an uphill battle in that the Yes campaign need only assert the usual FUD, however we have to communicate some fairly complex ideas in a campaign environment where attention spans are short. Just lodging the Norway option, and the notion that the EU is not the single market in the eurosceptic consciousness is something of a coup on our part. It's progress at least. It means that the more rational among us know that we're not going to be slamming any borders shut any time soon.

In establishing that Brexit is a process - and the alternatives are interim solutions, we can leave the Yes campaign to bicker about these options and we can admit to their shortcomings without hesitation. Defending one option against the EU as an idea is a debate we don't need to have and probably cannot win. 

We believe - largely as a result of promises made during the referendum campaign - there will be an absolute requirement to continue participation in the EU's Single Market for the short to medium term. The risks of leaving the EU largely pertain to single market access and without it the case for Brexit is a non-starter for British business.

Our side is also making arguments that participation in academic and research programmes will also continue along with continued involvement in other EU cooperative activities. That means we must avoid any spurious assumptions about our budget contributions. Vast savings are by no means guaranteed and there will be no shopping spree with any Brexit dividend. The Yes campaign can quite easily demonstrate that our budget contribution is not as large as it is perceived.

We also need to show that we will not undergo a huge political and diplomatic undertaking to be marginally worse off than before. Initially, as a means of ending our full membership of the EU, we see value in rejoining the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) and trading with the remaining EU member states through the European Economic Area (EEA). In what is a multi-layer fallback strategy, alternatives are available if this option does not prove viable. The situation is fluid and much depends on what Cameron presents at the last minute. It will shape many of the arguments we make - thus we must prepare for any eventuality.

As the adage goes, no plan of battle ever survives first contact with the enemy - and we should prepare for the possibility that we will lose some arguments and be ready to follow a different path where that be so. As Sun Tzu has it "As Military tactics are like unto water; for water in its natural course runs away from high places and hastens downwards... Water shapes its course according to the nature of the ground over which it flows; the soldier works out his victory in relation to the foe whom he is facing. Therefore, just as water retains no constant shape, so in warfare there are no constant conditions. He who can modify his tactics in relation to his opponent and thereby succeed in winning, may be called a heaven-born captain."

That is the mentality we must adopt - with credible, rational and pragmatic answers. If we make grand promises built on intellectual sand, without the capacity to adapt,  we will be shot down in flames. Ukip's lacklustre election campaign showed us just how dangerous it is not to have policies and answers in advance of the battle. Ultimately we're not going to win this by playing Top Trumps with facts and figures, and political realities dampen many eurosceptic assumptions about what Brexit can achieve. The actual leaving of the EU is only stage one in a long programme of democratic reforms. That is what we must sell.

To my mind we need to show that the EU is a stunted, obsolete vision and that we can achieve better by being more nimble and more responsive on the global stage without being held back by procrastination and delay. Co-operation is good but compromise too often means everybody loses. 

We'll more likely win this with a metropolitan liberal vision than the grumpy old man act that we get from Ukip. We will need to inspire and offer an incentive, but also a roadmap. That is not going to be easy to communicate, but that is the task in front of us.

We must be prepared to surprise and wrongfoot the opposition at every turn and let them waste their resources rebutting arguments we're not actually making. Let them be the ones to look irrelevant. This is of course going to require some considerable soul searching from certain actors in the No camp. It will require a sea change in eurosceptic attitudes to more or less everything. We can take the high ground from them and make the opposition look like the dinosaurs but only if we take the initiative now.  

Central to this strategy, we must now lobby hard for those who have influence to up their game, change the old eurosceptic record, and push for certain outfits to stop banging on about immigration. It's a pity that we must fight our own side first, but we must if we expect to win this. It's the mushy middle we need to win over - and we need to persuade people who would never vote Ukip in a billion years. This is not going to be easy.

So this company Cyagen is paying authors for citations in academic papers

Here’s a strange thing, a seedy curio rather than a massive scandal, but I’d be interested to know what you make of it. This week lots of academics all received the same unsolicited marketing email from a large well known research company called Cyagen, who make transgenic mice, stem cells, and so on. The email was headed […]

Rare Replay has it all

Rare is more than just a video game developer. They are an institution having created some of the most iconic and distinctive games ever produced. To celebrate their 30th anniversary, Rare and Microsoft have released Rare Replay, a collection of 30 games by Rare and its predecessor Ultimate Play the Game. 30 games for the unbelievable price of just one dollar per game.

If we don't have a plan we will walk into every trap

Since the 2015 general election we have seen a flurry of referendum related activity. It has since tailed off as the news agenda settles back into the usual routine, but we have seen a microcosm of how the referendum debate will play out. We have seen how the opposition intends to run their campaign and the arguments they intend to run with. This exemplifies the need for creative arguments they are not prepared or equipped to counter.

The Yes campaign is familiar with the old Eurosceptic tropes as we are. They are well briefed to deal with them, they have establishment resources with to disseminate their meme driven case and they show little hesitation in bending the truth.

If you are reading this we assume you the reader are familiar with the case for leaving the EU. Much effort will go into reinforcing that case in the coming months, thus we are content to leave that to others. What concerns us is that leading the leading EU advocacy groups make the casewe  eurosceptics have yet to offer a credible vision of what a post-Brexit Britain looks like.  

As it happens, this is something of a lie and such groups, namely Business for New Europe will seek to ignore any such submission. The respective emerging No campaign groups have badly dropped the ball in this respect. It is a matter of urgency that a Brexit plan be at the forefront of our efforts.

The Yes campaign will seek to present Brexit as a leap not the dark involving years of diplomatic and political effort to end up in a marginally worse position than where we are today. On a superficial level, they are absolutely right. There isn’t much of an incentive to leave the EU unless we can demonstrate the tough questions have been answered – and that we will be in a better position for leaving.

Thus, a careful analysis of how we leave the EU and the diplomatic avenues available to us is absolutely critical. Our alternative must be credible and workable. Without doing this groundwork we end up promoting flawed solutions that ultimately lose the argument. The Yes campaign will be well briefed to pick holes in the commonly suggested options, some of which may not even be available to us by the time we go to the polls. By then a new EU treaty may be on the table.

In this respect how we leave dictates much of the substance of the No campaign. For instance, should we promote ending free movement of people we then close of a number of workable avenues, forcing us into a cul-de-sac of limited options, all of which can be argued will leave Britain is a worse position.

We also believe that referendums are not won on a negative premise. Continued griping about immigration cannot be a central theme lest the No campaign be tainted by accusations of xenophobia and jingoism. The Yes campaign will seek to position itself as internationalist, liberal and modern proposition, and will paint No as a withdrawalist, isolationist position. If they succeed, the vote is lost. 

Consequently we are in a space race for the middle ground to win the progressive crown. How we leave then becomes central to the message and the tone of the whole campaign. For this reason we present Flexcit.

In Flexcit we examine in detail the alternatives to the EU, the pitfalls and the opportunities, but also present a new model of governance as an incentive to voters, encompassing direct democracy, real localism and a written constitution. We call it The Harrogate Agenda. Without a deal sweetener it will be difficult to ask the majority to take the gamble. There is also a strategic purpose to this. 

The No campaign cannot get carried away making false promises and raising expectations when all of the Brexit solutions require a degree of compromise and will not necessarily produce the results that many Eurosceptics expect. As we outline, Brexit does not give us complete control over our borders nor does it especially mean a sizeable reduction in regulation. Thus the campaign must be able to offer something tangible that could not be achieved as EU members.

In this exit plan we offer our analysis of the respective Brexit solutions, the most realisable option, the political realities of achieving it and the timing. As we outline, Brexit is a process rather than an event and leaving the EU is just the beginning of a long road to economic and democratic reform. The importance of the No campaign grasping this is paramount. It has massive ramifications for how the No campaign is conducted and unless we take an original approach we can expect to be bogged down in the same old tired and boring arguments and lose them. Flexcit is our secret weapon that gives us the edge. The Yes campaign is not equipped to handle it.

The space race for the centre ground

History repeats

Written by Peter North

The rule of thumb in British politics is that he who controls the centre, controls the game. And that's why we're on a collision course to losing an EU referendum. The Brexit side is made up of curtain twitching conservatives, xenophobes, trade unionists. far leftists and hardcore libertarians. All intensely and uniquely despised. To look at our motley crew, any sane person would run a mile. We've got Owen Jones, Nigel Farage and sundry "right wingers". And then we have the "kippers". Why would anyone put their tick in the same box as these numpties?

We can see from these groupings where the fundamental schism is. There is a spectrum of opinion between the London cosmopolitan elites and the knuckle-scrapers of Ukip. What's clear is we're not reaching those in the middle. Jeremy Cliffe, columnist at The Economist, outlines the new political battlefield in a piece entitled "The case for cosmopolitan populism" where he outlines his vision as to what can be done to close the gaps. There's a few select sentences in this that will (and should) raise alarm bells, but you can see the narrative he weaves:

"Britain in the 1950s, even the 1970s, was in many respects a miserable, austere, petty, curtain-twitching, finger-wagging, stultifying place. That it is no longer so, and on many fronts is becoming even less so, should be celebrated.

He continues:

"...politicians and their supporters should do more to "weaponise" the choice between a drab, isolationist future for Britain and a cosmopolitan, prosperous one."

In essence, that will be the battleground for the EU referendum. Ultimately those most progressive vision is the one that will win out. When you look at our side we have all the stalwarts of that curtain-twitching, finger-wagging, stultifying Britain. The Ukippists and thier "pull up the drawbridge mentality" and the far left with their dogmatic resistance to progress. We're not even in the game when it comes to fighting for the middle ground.

Cliffe recalls that "One of the defining features of the recent general election campaign was its parochialism. At a time of great threats and bigger opportunities for the country beyond its shores, the wider world was barely mentioned. The assumption in Westminster is that doing so causes voters either to switch off or to switch party."

We can speak at length about this dynamic, in that our politics has become small and parochial. The politics of the world out there just doesn't resonate the the marginal constituencies that swing elections. But Cliffe notes that "there is a clear, patriotic argument to be made in favour of a Britain engaged on the world stage, that harnesses its diverse population and international links, that asserts itself in forums like the EU and the Commonwealth to advance the national interest".

If anything, general elections are a month long festival of domestic politics so that patriotic case doesn't get a look in, however, this referendum will be a year long battle over our standing in the world. That is where we will see that schism between the "cosmopolitan populism" and the claustrophobic world of Ukip. Thus the battle should be a space race to occupy the centre ground and present the most progressive and patriotic vision for Britain.

There is no way that banging on abut asylum seekers will win a referendum. There is no way the withdrawalist mindset can win. Nobody wants to go back to that "miserable, austere, petty, curtain-twitching, finger-wagging, stultifying place". The decider will be who makes the most convincing case that the other side are dinosaurs.

We have already made the case that with world has moved on from the quaint old EU ideas - and that the global model of trade has changed beyond recognition in ways that the EU has yet to realise. We need to sell the idea that the EU is essentially isolationist, withdrawalist euro-parochialism. The fences being erected in Bulgaria and Romania show that the EU mentality is that same curtain-twitching stultification writ large. It is the EU's own reluctance to engage in the realities of global displacement that we see people dying in the Mediterranean.

We need to go big on the idea of going global, being more open and more agile than the EU. We need to set out a vision of being a more welcoming and diverse place. That shouldn't be difficult to sell. There's a good reason why asylum seekers don't want to stay in France. It's an economically stagnant, racist and miserable country. Britain is way better than France and the world knows it.

Of all the nations adapting best to globalisation and this internet connected super-economy, Britain is leading the field. We're engaged in it, we're remodelling our whole economy and public services around it. Nobody is better equipped to deal with modernity than Britain. There is no going back to that quaint biscuit tin Britain, there's no holding back the tide of progress - so we need to embrace it.

While we are developing websites and internet services that are changing the world, the EU's contribution to it is an annoying dialogue box on every website telling us about cookies. If anything personified the EU's attitude to progress, it is that. We have a manifest destiny in the world, and while Cliffe thinks engaging with the EU is engaging with the world it isn't. The EU is a redundant middleman holding us back. We should be resisting TTIP and the likes not because of what they are, but the fact we can get a better agreements and faster by going global.

In all respects we can be more agile and assertive outside the EU and being in the EU is like trying to run a marathon with a ball and chain. It is they who are the dinosaurs, they who are the parochialists and they are the ones afraid of the future. The Ukip I remember under Alan Sked knew this, but today we see a small and petty Ukip, whining about helicopter safety regulations, foreigners with Aids and calling for the army to be deployed in Calais. It doesn't sound very progressive to me and, sadly, Tory Eurosceptics are little better. From where I'm standing it looks like we're going to lose hands down, and it's not difficult to see why. We should be in a space race to take the centre -  but we're retreating to the fringes.

RPGCast - Episode 354: "Can I Conceive Now?"

Alice still can't deliver a laser light show party. Manny tries to crash said party but only gets a console platform debate for his trouble. Anna Marie is conceiving in the corner. And Simon is pushing all of Chris's buttons. In other words, it's a podcast.