Local By-Election Review : June 2017 (post General Election)

Dawdon on Durham (Lab defence)

Result: Labour 693 (52% +6% on May 2017), Independent 633 (48%, no candidate in May 2017)

Labour HOLD with a majority of 60 (4%)

Hedge End and Grange Park on Eastleigh (Lib Dem defence)

Result: Liberal Democrat 668 (56% +14% on last time), Conservative 316 (27% +4% on last time), Labour 144 (12% +7% on last time), Green Party 41 (3%, no candidate last time), United Kingdom Independence Party 14 (1% -29% on last time)

Liberal Democrat HOLD with a majority of 352 (29%) on a swing of 5% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat

William Morris on Waltham Forest (Lab defence)

Result: Labour 1,923 (68% +11% on 2014), Green Party 524 (19% +2% on 2014), Conservative 365 (13% +6% on 2014)

Labour HOLD with a majority of 1,399 (49%) on a swing of 4.5% from Green to Labour

Derby on West Lancashire (Con defence)

Result: Our West Lancashire 705 (42%, no candidate last time), Labour 596 (36% +1% on last time), Conservative 362 (22% -28% on last time)

Our West Lancashire GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 109 (6%) on a notional swing of 20.5% from Labour to Our West Lancashire (Actual notional swing: 35% from Con to OWL)

June 2017 Monthly Summary (post General Election)

Labour 7,114 votes (39% +10% on last time) winning 3 seats (unchanged on last time)

Conservatives 3,683 votes (20% -7% on last time) winning 4 seats (unchanged on last time)

Green Party 3,154 votes (17% +6% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time)

Liberal Democrats 1,974 votes (11% -3% on last time) winning 1 seat (unchanged on last time)

Independent Candidates 1,454 votes (8% +6% on last time) winning 0 seats (-1 seat on last time)

Local Independents 767 votes (4% -4% on last time) winning 1 seat (+1 seat on last time)

Plaid Cymru 101 votes (1% +1% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time)

United Kingdom Independence Party 14 votes (0% -7% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time)

Other Parties 2 votes (0% -1% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time)

Labour lead of 3,431 votes (19%) on a swing of 8.5% from Conservative to Labour

Compiled By Harry Hayfield

If LAB is pinning its hopes on by-elections in CON held seats then history is not on its side

There’s been just one by-election in past 16 years caused by death/illness of CON incumbent

There is a lot of hope on the Labour side that the small CON working majority with the DUP could be cut as result of a by-election loss.

The only problem with this is that historically there have been very few by-elections caused by the illness or death of the CON incumbent. Since 2001 there has been just one compare with 15 Labour health/death ones. Note that I have excluded Jo Cox.

Most by elections in Tory seats have been caused by the voluntary resignation of the Sitting MP such as David Cameron in 2016 or the weird resignation by David Davis in the 2005-2010 Parliament when he quit and stood again to make a point the purpose of which has long since been forgotten.

In 2014, of course, we had two resignations in CON seats caused by the defections of Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless to UKIP.

Last year, Zac Goldsmith, quit his Richmond Park seat seat and the party to fight a by-election over LHR3. He regained it on June 8th by 45 votes a margin somewhat down on the 23k of GE2015.

In the current parliamentary situation the TMay’s Tories are going to do everything in their power to stop voluntarily by elections.

So we could experience something like the 2001 to 2005 Parliament when the Tories did not have to defend a single seat.

Mike Smithson

Follow @MSmithsonPB

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Tonight’s council by-elections

Four council by-elections today: two Labour defences, one Conservative and one Lib Dem. @AndrewTeale's previews: https://t.co/sB47GgLt27 pic.twitter.com/oJECfONqkD

— Britain Elects (@britainelects) June 29, 2017

TSE