Jeremy Hunt is clearly on manoeuvres and he’s also 100/1 to be next Tory leader

Jeremy Hunt snapped flashing briefing notes that warn hard Brexit means doctors 'fleeing' UKhttps://t.co/UwKamIiiVz pic.twitter.com/oOdhm2f4qq

— Mirror Politics (@MirrorPolitics) July 4, 2017

FT BREXIT LEAD: Top ministers push to keep EU pharma ties #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/sHdlis5Ntr

— Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) July 3, 2017

.@Jeremy_Hunt clearly on Brexit manouevres: today's @FT letter and now an 'accidental' flash of doc in Downing St #sensiblebrexit

— James Chapman (@jameschappers) July 4, 2017

Why I’ve taken the 100/1 on Jeremy Hunt to be Theresa May’s successor.

I’ve noted before winning Tory leadership contests are often about who you aren’t, rather than who you are, and I can see Jeremy Hunt being the stop Boris/Hammond/Fox et al candidate. Another thing that might help Hunt is that he was very much an example of Cameron’s detoxification project, I suspect he’ll try and continue to build on Cameron’s legacy, which will appeal to many MPs who are worried the Tories are regaining their ‘nasty party’ title.

As James Chapman, who was up to quite recently working for the Brexit Secretary, David Davis, and also served as aide to George Osborne observes Hunt is a man on manoeuvres, these two events today confirm it, being photographed like that was no accident.

Several PB’s most esteemed gamblers think Jeremy Hunt’s legacy from his so far near five year stint as Health Secretary is a bar to him becoming Prime Minister and I agree to them to an extent, however at 100/1 he represents the potential for a good trading bet at least.

The other observation of the wider cabinet  is that Mrs May’s authority is weakened to such an extent that her ministers can go rogue so publicly, especially into the areas that aren’t part of their portfolios, such as ministers intervening on Treasury matters, I really can’t see her lasting much longer if this continues.

TSE

If this story is right then you should take the 4/1 on Mrs May ceasing to be PM in 2019

Good scoop. Terrible idea? https://t.co/GzIq9bfKJq

— Sam Coates Times (@SamCoatesTimes) July 2, 2017

Even before her first anniversary as Prime Minister, Mrs May’s departure is being planned.

The Sun are reporting that

PRESSURE is growing on Theresa May from Tory grandees to name June 2019 as the time she will step down as PM.

Senior party figures want her to spell out a timetable for her No10 departure at the Conservatives’ annual conference in October.

Declaring she will stay on in power until after Brexit – which takes place at midnight on March 30, 2019 – would strengthen Britain’s negotiating hand, they argue.

EU leaders would know they have no choice but to deal with Mrs May rather than waiting for any imminent successor.

But as soon as Brexit has happened, they want the PM to trigger a nine week Tory leadership contest.

Under the scenario – relayed to The Sun by three senior Tories independently of each other – Mrs May’s replacement would then take over to prepare for the next general election by 2022.

One senior Tory minister told The Sun: “We need the certainty of Theresa staying where she is until Brexit to stand a chance of getting a decent deal.

“But she has to make it known publicly that she’s going nowhere until then for the Europeans to believe it, and conference is the time to do that.

“Going at that point also means she can soak up all the toxicity over Brexit and the deal, such as signing a big cheque, so the new leader gets a clean sheet.”

This plan does have some merits for the Tories and the country, but I think it would be bad for Mrs May personally, her already destroyed political authority would be diminished further, as Tony Blair can attest announcing your departure date in advance can be a mistake and your party might force you out sooner. 

However Tom Newton Dunn noted on twitter there’s already ‘a good 30 Tory MPs are actively campaigning for themselves [to be PM] right now,’ not announcing her departure won’t cause people try to start trying to topple her, as they are already doing it.

But as I noted above this plan would be good for the Tory party and the country and Mrs May for all her many many undoubted faults I think would want to do what is best for both party and country, so she might go for it. I suspect deep down she knows if she doesn’t agree to this request from the men in grey suits, she’ll face a vote of no confidence this autumn, Ladbrokes are offering 4/1 on 2019 being the year of Mrs May’s departure, I’m backing that, and I think so should you.

TSE