Why Investing in China Has Been ‘Dead Money’ over the Past Decade

Few investment themes have promised more but delivered less than investing in China.

In spring 2005, Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz predicted on CNBC that by 2008, the company would probably have more coffee shops in China than in the United States. Today, 12 years later, Starbucks still has four times as many coffee shops in the United States as it does in China.

These dashed expectations are probably familiar to you if you’ve ever invested in the Chinese stock market.

The ‘China Miracle’ Disappoints Investors

Had you invested in the largest Chinese exchange-traded fund (ETF) — iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) — back in the summer of 2007, you’d have made no money over the past 10 years.

In contrast, even after enduring the greatest financial crisis since the Great Depression, you would’ve earned a solid 64% in your S&P 500 index fund.

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